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Alphas

Every alpha holds an edge of 5 pp or more over the base rate out of sample and is re-checked on new data.

The first alphas are in validation

Candidates are searched on Labs models: the liquidation map with exposure history, order flow, OI and Monte Carlo. Only those holding an edge of 5 pp or more out of sample will appear here. The format is shown below on examples.

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What an alpha looks like

Example

Format examples with illustrative numbers, not trading signals. Switch to compare the free preview with a subscription.

LiveExampleLiquidation map · v0.0

Liquidation cluster fade

A long-liquidation cluster below price loses exposure fast while OI falls: positions are closed and downside pressure is gone.

Condition X
Alpha subscribers
Target
Return > 0
Horizon
4 hours
Bars
1h
Sample
n = 412
Edge over base rate5–10 pp
BTCUSDT · ETHUSDTLast fired: example
LiveExampleMonte Carlo · v0.0

Oversold with negative funding

RSI below 30 while shorts pay longs: the crowd is already short and a bounce is likelier than usual.

Condition X
Alpha subscribers
Target
Return > 0
Horizon
8 hours
Bars
1h
Sample
n = 236
Edge over base rate10–15 pp
BTCUSDT · ETHUSDT · SOLUSDTLast fired: example
WatchExampleMonte Carlo · v0.0

+1% touch with buying flow

Monte Carlo gives a high chance of touching +1% and CVD confirms buying: the level is reached more often than the model alone predicts.

Condition X
Alpha subscribers
Target
Touch +1%
Horizon
12 hours
Bars
15m
Sample
n = 158
Edge over base rate5–10 pp
BTCUSDTLast fired: example

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Alphas — Alpha · TreVmS